What to make of this week's bankruptcy filing by General Motors? The beginning of the end? The end of the beginning? A death? Rebirth? Something in between?
Given the months-long anticipation of this development, much already has been written and said, and many fingers pointed. GM, as Paul Ingrassia recently opined in the Wall Street Journal, made "decades of dumb decisions." And while there's truth to that, GM, Chrysler, and the other automotive companies didn't create this mess by themselves. It took a village — unions, consumers, regulators, and assorted others — to bring the car companies to their knees.
What of the environmental community? That term, of course, is a loose one, given that this "community" rarely speaks with a singular voice. As a rule, environmentalists have long been harsh critics of GM, citing the gas-guzzling Hummer, the company's participation in an industry lawsuit against California's regulation of carbon dioxide as a pollutant, its longstanding opposition to government-mandated fuel-efficiency regulations, and that "fact" that it "killed" the electric car. Of course, it wasn't just GM. Many other car makers — foreign and domestic — sided with GM on the lawsuits and the regulatory stance, marketed gas-guzzling behemoths, and dragged their collective feet on developing alt-fuel technologies. But the iconic GM got the brunt of the activists' criticism.
Today, many of these criticisms are nearly moot. GM reportedly has found a buyer for Hummer, something it has been trying to do for the past year. Several weeks ago, the White House proposed the first federal standard for greenhouse gas tailpipe emissions, and said it would harmonize those standards both with California's proposed "Pavley" emissions standards and with national corporate average fuel economy standards. And, of course, GM has been working for more than two years on its revolutionary Chevy Volt, an "extended range" electric vehicle that's received high praise from activists and engineers alike. Even with the bankruptcy, the Volt remains on track to hit the market at the end of next year.
In my recent book, I chronicled how GM began changing the conversation with the environmental community, beginning in late 2005, as the company promoted biofuels as a potential alternative fuel. In late 2006, GM leaders briefed a group of environmentalists about the Volt, even before it unveiled the car to the press, helping to ensure a group of supportive voices at the car's debut in early 2007. (Remarkably, the greenies kept their promise of confidentiality: There were no leaks.)
Over the past year, and especially over the past six months, GM stepped up its outreach to the major environmental groups, engaging them several times in conference calls and face-to-face meetings, seeking their support during the federal government's deliberations over its fate. GreenOrder, the sustainability strategy firm with which I am affiliated, helped facilitate many of these calls, which included Elizabeth Lowery, GM's Vice President, Environment, Energy, and Safety Policy, and — on two occasions — Rick Wagoner, GM's now-vanquished CEO. The calls offered an opportunity for GM's leadership to engage directly with one of its key stakeholder groups to describe its vision and plans, field questions, and listen to concerns.
I was struck by the civility of the whole affair, as two battle-scarred warriors — Big Auto and Big Green — came together, if not as friends, at least as colleagues with shared goals. The enviro leaders were surprisingly supportive — surprising, that is, because of the animosity and lack of trust that had grown and hardened over the years between the two camps. The activists offered support and encouragement to the auto maker. It was heartening to witness the rapprochement, though in the end, it may have been too little, too late.
But those conversations may yet prove their value, as the "New GM" emerges in the coming months. Before the economy tanked last fall, GM seemed to be "getting it," shifting its focus toward vehicle electrification and renewable fuels for the vehicles on its drawing boards. Its R&D leaders were pondering a world in which there could someday be 2 billion vehicles, roughly twice as many as today, and what that might mean for safety, road congestion, and the environment. They were designing prototypes of small neighborhood electric vehicles. And they were thinking about the second and third generations of the Volt technology that will follow in 2011 and beyond.
No one really knows what form the New GM will take, of course, but from what I can tell, all these efforts will continue. Earlier this week, on the day GM filed its bankruptcy petition, Beth Lowery sent an email to her network of environmental leaders and other stakeholders, offering her perspective of what the filing meant for the car company's future. It said in part:
The New GM will focus on reinventing not just ourselves, but transportation systems around the world. An essential starting point is vehicle electrification, including our new advanced battery lab in Warren, Michigan, where we will continue to develop battery technology to support electric vehicle programs such as the Chevrolet Volt. Also, we will continue to work with partners to develop the infrastructure necessary to support advanced technologies, from flexible-fuel vehicles to urban electric vehicles.
I'm encouraged by that. While it will take months, if not years, to see whether and how the New GM will survive, let alone thrive, there are rays of hope amid the corporate carnage. And while the cynics and skeptics may deride the taxpayer-funded New GM as "Government Motors," I still have high hopes that in the coming years, it actually could stand for "Greener Mobility."
Joel, as much as "Greener Mobility" (Cute) might make you feel good, it is going to take a lot more than "green" vehicles to pull GM out of the ditch.
Rasmussen's May 31st poll on whether one favored the GM bailout or not revealed that 67% did not favor the bailout and only 21% did. GM has a huge marketing challenge in front of them trying to figure out how to convince the vast majority of American taxpayers to buy their products when many feel they have already bought GM and didn't get anything for it, other than more debt.
As far as the Chevy Volt is concerned, I recently saw an article on the Volt wherein the cost of the vehicle is estimated to be between $35,000 and $40,000 because the windshield wipers and stereo system drain too much of the battery. I am not sure if the statement online is correct that GM Exec Bob Lutz said they cannot make a profit if the Volt is priced at $40,000. If this is true, who is going to pay more than $40,000 for a Chevy? Let's get real here. You can buy a Lexus RX 400h right now for under $45,000 and drive in a lot more comfort than a Chevy. BTW, any incentives (I have seen suggested amounts as high as $3,800) given to Volt customers just means we Taxpayers pay GM again and still do not receive any benefit.
There is no question about it, GM is in a very tough situation. Maybe the "New GM" will discover how to become more agile, but if history is any indicator of the future, I just do not see GM being around for much longer - too much competition and too much legacy.
Posted by: Jim Leemann | June 03, 2009 at 10:40 AM
Jim:
I'd be curious to know where you read the you mention re: the cost of the Volt. The price will be determined closer to launch and has nothing to do w/ the windshield wipers' or stereo's drain on the battery.
Actually, the Bose Energy Efficient sound system we're using in the Volt is 30 percent smaller, 40 percent lighter, and uses 50 percent less energy than conventional Bose sound systems - which under the right conditions can equate to removing 50 pounds of mass from the Volt.
And as with any new, transformational technology such as personal computers, iPods and plasma TVs, initial costs will be higher until we reach a critical mass to help drive down costs.
Plus, the Volt will qualify for a $7,500 Federal Tax credit, which was created to help encourage the adoption of this new technology into the market.
I do agree we are in a tough situation, but chapter 11 will help us rebuild our company for the future - and the Volt is a big part of that future.
Posted by: Phil Colley with GM | June 03, 2009 at 07:16 PM
Joel and Phil, I hope you are right that GM will become green in every sense of the word. I'm skeptical, if only because the company is being pulled in so many directions--by the government, the union, shareholders--and faces so many problems, notably the fact that its current cars aren't very good and bankruptcy will inevitably tarnish the brand. The best thing I've read about GM lately (aside from Alex Taylor's great cover story last year in FORTUNE) was this David Brooks column.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/opinion/02brooks.html
He's not optimistic about GM's future.
Posted by: Marc Gunther | June 04, 2009 at 12:33 PM
Phil,
As far as the price of the Volt, it is all over the internet. Just Google "Chevy Volt Cost" and you will find numerous sites talking about the cost of the Volt. For example:
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/02/wipers-stereo-p/
Even your executive Bob Lutz has talked about the price online. Quote from Lutz found at http://www.wired.com/cars/futuretransport/news/2008/01/lutz_volt_qa:
Lutz said, “You'd like to have it at about $30,000 for the customer, but what I'm hearing from the team is we're not going to get there. They say we might get there on the second generation, and they say if they had a lot more time they might be able to cost-optimize it. I don't want to wait for cost optimization. I'd rather come out in 2010, and if it costs closer to 40 than 30, well, that's too bad.”
"...well, that's too bad." Who is Lutz trying to kid here? In case he hasn't noticed, we are in a massive recession, people are extending the life of their current vehicles through maintenance and disposable income is going into savings at a higher pace then it has in years. It will be interesting to see just how many Volt's GM will actually sell in 2010, especially at $35 to $40K, even with a tax break.
Regarding the wipers and stereo reference:
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/02/chevrolet_gm_volt_price_goes_up_wipers_stereo.php
Yet another reference, also note all the references at the bottom of this page:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt
Phil, you know as well as I do, people today research the hell out of a product on the internet before they go into a showroom. They look at a lot more than the glitzy company product websites. As I said in my previous post, your marketing group has one heck of a challenge in front of them convincing American Taxpayers to buy GM products.
Don't get me wrong, I applaud GM's desire to enter the "green" car business game. The question is why did it take you guys so long to enter it, especially when your profitable years were huge selling pickup trucks and Escalades. The Insight is on version 2.0 and the Prius (#1 car sold in Japan this month) is on version 3.0. The Chevy Volt version 2.0 won't be on the road until probably 2012, if then, right?
If GM truly believes the Volt is GM's future as you have stated, GM made a strategic blunder in my opinion by not entering this "green" car market years ago, but I suppose those Escalade profits were just too enticing. Nothing wrong with making a profit, but not paying attention to the market for whatever reason can be devastating.
Ouch, $7,500 federal tax incentive. Worse than I thought. This $7,500 isn't coming out GM's pocket, it coming out of the USA Taxpayers wallets whether they buy a Volt or not. That’s the rub my friend.
Let's discuss mileage, 2010 Volt is rated at 40 mpg and the 2010 Prius is 70 mpg. No comparison.
Go to: http://blogs.thecarconnection.com/marty-blog/1019562_driven-the-70-mpg-2010-toyota-prius.
Let's discuss price, 2010 Volt $35,000 to $40,000, whereas 2010 Prius $22,000 and the 2010 Insight $19,800.
Go to: http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1020169_hybrid-pricewars-begin-toyota-prices-2010-prius-at-21000
Here is a question for you, how much is it going to cost a Volt owner to plug in and charge his or her Volt essentially every night it is sitting parked in the garage based on today's cost for electricity and tomorrow's cost post-"Cap-n-Trade"?
As far as today’s cost, here is what I calculated based on utility rates and current regular unleaded gasoline prices in Arizona (where I live). I thought this was interesting exercise, at least I enjoyed it, hope you do. Wonder why GM hasn’t advertised recharging and refueling costs? Maybe you have and I just could not find it.
Here we go, according to the Electric Power Monthly data for February 2009 from the Energy Information Office of the U.S. government, Table 5.6.A. “Average Retail Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, by State, February 2009 and 2008” the cost for residential electricity in Arizona for February 2009 was $0.0982/kWh. According to your Chevy Volt Specs website it will take between 6 and 6.5 hours to fully recharge the Volt’s Lithium-ion battery. For this exercise, assuming worse case, the Volt owner would recharge during off-peak hours and the battery would require a full charge each night.
Based on these assumptions, I calculate it will cost the Volt owner between $0.5892 and $0.6383 per charge per night in Arizona. Therefore, the costs for electricity to charge the Volt battery will be approximately $19.42/month.
The Volt has a 12-gallon fuel tank; I am assuming regular unleaded gasoline will be an acceptable grade of gasoline. This being the case with regular unleaded gasoline going for $2.428/gallon (average for Arizona); a tank of gasoline will cost $29.14. Obviously, I have no idea how often a Volt owner will be refueling the gasoline tank, but for this exercise let’s say twice per month (half as often as a non-hybrid vehicle). So that brings the cost for gasoline to $58.27 per month. If my calculations are correct, the total cost for recharging the battery and refueling the gasoline tank will be $77.69/month.
Now for comparison, I drive a non-hybrid 2001 SUV and my 2008 monthly gasoline cost was $126.21/month. Stated a little differently, if I owned a Volt in 2008, I would have saved $582.24/year in fueling costs to drive my Volt. Keep in mind; this is pre-“Cap-n-Trade” estimates.
This certainly is not an insignificant number, but wait, how many years would it take me to break even owning a Volt versus say owning a Prius using fuel cost savings compared to my current vehicle? If the 2010 Volt costs me $40,000 - $7,500 = $32,500 and the 2010 Prius costs me $22,000 that’s a difference of $10,500. Therefore, it would take me 18 years in fuel savings to break even versus keeping my current vehicle. If the Volt cost $35,000 - $7,500 = $27,500, it would take 9.5 years. Obviously, this isn’t the reason people buy “green” cars, but from an economic standpoint, “green” cars do not make sense.
BTW, based on the effects very cold temperatures have on batteries, will the Volt come with some means for keeping the battery warm while being charged in zero to sub-zero temperatures? Also, will a person living in zero to sub-zero climates be able to drive to work and leave the Volt in an open-air parking lot and be able to start the car when it is time to go home?
I think I have made my point Phil. Believe me, I wish you and GM the best of luck, but GM has proven over and over again that it is not as agile as its competitors. The Volt is a weak "me to" version of hybrid electric cars in this market. With the advent of the Aptera, the Coda and numerous others, this hybrid market space is getting real crowded, real quick.
Good luck…
Posted by: Jim Leemann | June 04, 2009 at 04:21 PM
This car is AWESOME! I want one so bad, who wouldn't?! Wish the price tag wasn't so steep though, and I think that 40k is for base. :( Oh well I'll be sure too look out for a used, my Prius is just fine for now! :)
Posted by: Leaky Brain | August 11, 2009 at 08:13 AM