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May 18, 2009


Paul Hudnut

A nice summary of the trends for larger business. It will be interesting to see if the slow pace of change will be fast enough. Fast enough to avoid disruption/extinction due to more nimble start ups, and more importantly, fast enough to help the planet by moving to a more sustainable economy.
Hope the conference goes well, and that it encourages the participants to examine survival not just through the current crisis, but through the longer period ahead.


While the trends of relocalizing, reprioritizing and reconnecting seem like excellent ways to characterize the direction of change, I doubt that "radical evolution" will adequately describe the magnitude of change required. The example of climate change and the transition to a low carbon economy is only the most visible challenge faced by business. Business-as-usual practices suggest a growth of GHG emissions for the US economy from about 7 billion metric tons in 2007 to 12 billion in 2050, while both the science (IPCC targets) and policy (e.g. Waxman-Markey) require 80% reductions. That is a huge gap by 2050: 12 billion metric tons for business versus 1.5 billion targeted by science and government policy. For this reason, I would prefer the term, "massive innovation" to radical evolution to describe the magnitude of change we face. See the upcoming Global Forum 2009 for an event dedicated to this notion: www.GlobalForum2009.org

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