It's been a pretty tough week in Detroit, with the major auto companies reeling from layoffs and setbacks. On Saturday, two front-page stories captured the mood. The New York Times ("Detroit Flails in Latest Effort to Reinvent Itself") noted that "Detroit is running low on optimism," while the Wall Street Journal ("Ford and Chrysler Show Dark Outlook For U.S. Car Makers") dubbed the previous day "Black Friday" after both Ford and Chrysler "acknowledged that their strategies for outracing high gas prices, fickle consumer tastes, and relentless global competition had hit the wall." Both stories also noted General Motor's ongoing downsizings and plant closings.
But amid it all, I managed to find a small beacon of hope.
Earlier in the week, I spent two days in Southern California with a group of journalists, activists, and others, listening to GM executives unveil its plans for a hydrogen-powered future. Specifically, the company announced a small roll-out of the Chevrolet Equinox fuel-cell vehicle next year, and allowed us to test drive the Chevy Sequel, its next-gen hydrogen-powered car. (I attended this event in two roles: As a journalist and blogger, and as senior consultant at GreenOrder, the sustainability strategy firm of which GM is a client.)
Over the past year or so, as the hype about hybrids, flex-fuel vehicles, and electric cars has reached cruising speed, talk of the once-ballyhooed hydrogen highway seems to have slowed to a crawl. The long time horizons, the enormous costs of developing a hydrogen fueling infrastructure, and a lack of certainty about the optimal technology for making hydrogen in the first place -- all seemed to have relegated fuel cells to a "maybe someday" status. (Joe Romm's book, The Hype About Hydrogen, offers the best articulation of this perspective.)
But don't tell that to GM. They've got plans -- and cars -- that they say we'll be driving in the next few years.
GM will begin placing "more than 100" Equinoxes -- a "crossover" vehicle that is somewhere between a passenger car and an SUV -- with customers next fall as part of a deployment plan dubbed "Project Driveway." The goal is to gain real-world understanding of the customer experience through what GM calls "the first meaningful market test of fuel-cell vehicles anywhere." A variety of individuals representing a range of driving styles and operating environments will drive these vehicles and refuel them with hydrogen in three geographic areas: Southern California, metropolitan New York City, and Washington D.C.
To be sure, 100 fuel cell cars on American roads is barely a blip, but GM clearly gets that it's going to take a massive effort to positively affect climate change, oil shortages, and other environmental challenges. "We're only going to solve these world problems if people buy these in the millions and tens of millions," Byron McCormick, Executive Director of GM's Fuel Cell Activities, told us, adding, "This has moved from a science project to something pretty real."
Right behind the Equinox is the aptly named Sequel (pictured above), which represents GM's fourth-generation hydrogen vehicle. It goes from 0 to 60 in 10 seconds, accelerates to 90 miles an hour, and can travel 300 miles between fuelings. As GM described it, the Sequel is
the first vehicle in the world to successfully integrate a hydrogen fuel cell propulsion system with a broad menu of advanced technologies such as steer- and brake-by-wire controls, wheel hub motors, lithium-ion batteries, and a lightweight aluminum structure.
We were allowed to drive the Sequel along a 25-mile course at Camp Pendleton, about 80 miles south of Los Angeles. (The poignant irony of driving a hydrogen-powered car on an active U.S. Marine base the day after the 9/11 anniversary, with helicopters performing training maneuvers overhead, was not lost on some of us.) What was most remarkable about the car was that it wasn't particularly remarkable -- it drove nicely, accelerated well, and handled smoothly, much like a "normal" car.
Where will the Sequel and Equinox get their fuel? Phil Baxley, a VP at Shell Hydrogen, which launched a partnership with GM in 2003 to "make hydrogen fuel cell vehicles a commercially viable reality," told us that Shell is rolling out a small network of stations in coordination with vehicle manufacturers and local governments. Baxley envisions a larger rollout of stations in the 2015-2025 time frame, though market drivers and world events could accelerate that. It didn't sound simple, and it won't be.
GM's wasn't the only major fuel-cell vehicle announcement last week. BMW announced the Hydrogen 7, "the world's first hydrogen-drive luxury performance automobile," which it says "will be built in a limited series in Europe and driven in the US and other countries by selected users in 2007." The car is equipped with an internal combustion engine capable of running either on hydrogen or on gasoline and based on the BMW 7 Series. BMW -- who's latest green tagline is "Sustainability. It can be done." -- claims that switching the car from one fuel to the other is simple.
The driver is able to switch from hydrogen to gasoline mode manually by pressing a button on the multifunction steering wheel. Because engine power and torque remain exactly the same regardless of the mode of operation, switching from one mode to another has no effect on the driving behavior and performance of the BMW Hydrogen 7.
So, is hydrogen ready for prime time? Hardly. Both BMW and GM have long roads to travel. GM in particular must reinvent itself as a leaner, greener car company, pushing not just hydrogen, but a full spectrum of technologies: hybrids, plug-ins, electrics, flex-fuels, and more efficient gas-powered engines. And -- oh, yeah -- make cars that people want to buy and love to drive.
I'll admit to having imbibed some of the Kool-Aid this past week. The Hydrogen Economy isn't upon us, by any means, but it's not as far off as I'd thought. And I'm more than a tad skeptical that the U.S. auto industry can revive itself and regain its footing, let alone be a green leader.
But in my continual see-saw battle between cynicism and hopefulness, the balanced tipped, if only fleetingly: Last week, hope won out.
Hi Joel - having seen a preview of "Who killed the electric car" here in Oz, I can't help but think that "Project Driveway" sounds a lot like the pilot program of electric vehicles that the movie centres around.
The partnership with Shell to roll-out refueling stations sounds very similar to the roll-out of electric charging stations in California for the EV initiative. Except that electricity is available in most places from a variety of providers, whereas gas companies like Shell will get a cut of the 'hydrogen economy'.
I was wondering what your thoughts are, then, on just how "real" this all is?
(That's also setting aside questions about the net energy required to produce hydrogen, esp. if not matched by a move to renewables - but I digress...)
Posted by: Grant | September 17, 2006 at 10:58 PM
Good question, Grant. As I tried to articulate in my blog post, I think this is "real," however small for now. One of the things that impressed me most at the event I attended was that the GM participants included two of the lead engineers on the EV-1. They're very excited about GM's hydrogen play and believe that it's a natural extension of all the work they've done in the past.
In short, I think GM is deeply committed to this. Whether they can pull it off, of course, is another question.
-- Joel
Posted by: Joel Makower | September 19, 2006 at 12:49 PM
Thanks Joel - great to hear that the EV1 team's learnings are being put to good use.
Let's hope that they're more successful this time around :)
Posted by: Grant | September 19, 2006 at 08:24 PM
Thanks a lot for this great article!
I have one question though : what about the environmental impacts of producing hydrogen for it to be used in such cars? The question is in fact : even if hydrogen is an answer for oil shortages, is it an answer for global warming?
Posted by: François RAGUENOT | September 28, 2006 at 12:06 AM
I agree with the above post. Just like the ethanol issue, since these can be sourced from corn, they are coined as unsustainable subsidized food burning. We might not have shortage in fuel but eventually this may lead to food shortage which I think is much more distressing.
Posted by: Sarah | October 09, 2006 at 10:52 PM
Good coverage of an increasingly important issue! What sort of range would these cars do? I was watching an article here in the UK that said Honda had developed a similar vehicle and were feasability testing it on a 'secret island'. They had even developed a pump that you can use at your house which uses electrolysis of water from solar energy to produce the hygrogen. Since fuel cells only produce water anyways the only environmental impact of this system would be more rain... not so great here in UK, there's enough already ;-)
Posted by: Tim | November 11, 2006 at 06:43 AM
Very informative article, thanks!
Why do the car companies want to develop complex fuel cell vehicles that require explosive fuel and expensive new hydrogen distribution infrastructure, when the GM EV1 worked fine with a home plug-in? The fuel supply infrastructure is already in place for most of us to use an electrical vehicle which would charge at night when there is available grid capacity.
Over the long term, either plug-ins or fuel cells will require more electric power grid capacity, and nuclear power is one of the few sources that won't promote global warming. Yet, I don't see the energy companies moving that direction even with recent legislation that makes siting nuclear plants a bit faster.
Posted by: Ron Skidmore | December 01, 2006 at 10:14 AM
I don't think Shell Hydrogen is thinking this way, but a great way to create a distribution system to deliver hydrogen is to use solar electric panels to create hydrogen from water. You could have a system on your home. Filling stations could use solar panels on mall roofs, etc... Hydrogen is just a energy storage/carrier, not a source. If the source is fossil fuels, then the effect is not very green. If the source is solar energy, then it may just be a better way to store and deliver this abundant and very green but variable energy.
Posted by: Jim Mosley | December 11, 2006 at 09:58 AM
Thanks for this article. Very detailed.I think over the next couple of years will see huge developments in the hybrid car range
Posted by: Willy Mason ( Hybrid Cars ) | March 14, 2007 at 01:30 PM
..I spent two days in Southern California with a group of journalists, activists, and others, listening to GM executives unveil its plans for a hydrogen-powered future
Posted by: Juno888 | June 25, 2007 at 01:33 AM