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February 24, 2005



I was under the impression that Hubbert predicted that 1970 would be the year oil production peaked in America - which it did, didn't it? Far from being discredited, he was finally accorded the respect that he had lost after making his 'ludicrous' prediction in the fifties. Perhaps I have it backwards though...

Kurt Cobb

Hubbert did predict that 1970 would be the year of peak oil production in the lower 48 states. I've seen estimates that place the peak in 1974. But, the clearest evidence came from eyewitnesses who saw loaded oil freighters start to arrive rather than leave Houston in late 1970 in the course of one week. In spring 1971 the Texas Railroad Commission which regulates the oil industry in the state allowed pumping from wells without restriction. The commission had previously acted as a sort of mini-OPEC up to that point by restricting production to keep up prices. Who's playing that role right now? Saudi Arabia. If they've got no additional capacity, it's an important signal that we may have reached a peak.


A correction:Anonymous's article didn't appear first on the energybulletin.net, but on urbansurvival.com,as the link in the article shows.Most of the posts on energybulletin.net are reprints,which is good to remember when linking to them.

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